Climate change will have a major impact on living conditions in the Nordic region: not an exclusively negative impact, but there will certainly be more storms, hurricanes and torrential rain, and the natural environment will certainly suffer.
This is clear from fresh Nordic research which has analysed the consequences for the Nordic countries of an average two-degree rise in global temperatures.
The report was drawn up for the Nordic Council of Ministers by the climate research institute CICERO in conjunction with COWI.
The intention to highlight the implications of such a two-degree rise reflects EU policy and aims. Most international studies indicate significantly higher increases in temperatures with major adverse consequences.
The report examines the effect on sea levels, agriculture and forestry, fishing, the energy sector, tourism and natural disasters amongst much else.
Winter temperatures are expected to rise by two to three degrees Celsius and summer temperatures by 1-1.5 degrees. Fewer days will be hit by frosts and more by heat waves, and while this might sound like good news, warmer weather may mean the extinction of many species of flora and fauna and an increase in vermin.
Snows will melt faster, to the detriment of winter tourism, while at the same time the increased volume of meltwater combined with increased rainfall will benefit the energy sector, notably hydroelectric power plants.
Other effects of significance in terms of energy include an extended growing season, allowing increased production of biomass – e.g. wood, wood waste and agricultural waste – for fuel, and eventually to a drop in demand for energy for heating.
But is the scenario of a two-degree change in climate, taken as a whole, good or bad for the Nordic region?
COWI project manager Asger Garnak points out that the report does not come up with an overall conclusion, partly because the effects vary from area to area and does not make any comparison between the positive and negative effects.
”Ultimately we are left with great uncertainties, including the risk of catastrophic effects, for instance if it proves that a two-degree global rise in temperature causes the ice cap to melt," says Asger Garnak. By Eva IsagerPublished: 16.04.2008
Asger GarnakProject managerTel. + 45 97 28 53agk@cowi.dk
Anne OhmProject team memberTel. + 45 97 22 95ao@cowi.dk
Read the CICERO/COWI report on the Nordic Council of Ministers website. Go to:
'The impact on the Nordic region of 2-degree global warming' (in Norwegian with an English summary)Web site for official co-operation in the Nordic region:The Nordic Council